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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award adheres to a straightforward formula. It commonly acts as a kind of mea culpa. We regret we misjudged your squad in our pre-campaign projections.

In theory, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who engineered the biggest improvement is handed the prize. In practice, it sparks an annual argument about expectations and whether we're genuinely rewarding superior coaching or just the most shocking surprise.

But this year's race is fundamentally different. The list of nominees is exceptionally strong. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning division winners falling away and longtime strugglers rising together. During an normal year, Sean Payton leading the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in this turbulent and fun season, he's facing five other outstanding candidates.

Here is how the projected vote should look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love QBs. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. When you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal environment, the QB has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his otherworldly talent. From Week 9, the Bears sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's sustained dominance. Under Johnson, Williams has become increasingly decisive, less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the system rather than improvising. It is an attack constructed solely in the coach's vision: a physical ground attack, a heavy dose of play-action and a creative passing attack that creates wide receiver receivers everywhere. Williams has thrived. And when easy reads weren't available, he's been able to spin magic out of broken plays.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive blueprint. Almost every decision – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a timing-based thrower – has worked. That's rare for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer still for a coach who entered the building with the level of pressure Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no sure things. Somehow, Johnson has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive dork but the kind of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.

During a normal season, Johnson would be the clear-cut choice. But this isn't a normal campaign!

Where his candidacy comes slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears currently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and takeaways are famously fickle. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defensive work. With a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several victories behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is in place for long-term success. But Johnson falls just short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time leader who has orchestrated a swift turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best overall ball of his career. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has nailed the intangibles aspects, which wasn't a guarantee following his initial press conference introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the perfect coaching cocktail of new ideas and experience, he trusted first-timers. From the leader himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That type of setup is intriguing on paper, but frequently collapses in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is learning a their job on the fly. But he has managed to bring the entire group and everything together.

Following an initial strong beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the rails. A mid-year collapse caused the Jags wobbling once more. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. He did not. Rather, he simplified things. The offense stopped pursuing explosive plays and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen refocused the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more.

The results are evident. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's number three seed. Coen receives the slightest deduction in the standings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year argument has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a different signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have derailed the campaign in October. Rather, it shaped it. By the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has regressed after that time, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, placing him only one spot ahead of other QBs.

Still