Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or advocates are willing to participate with even the essentials. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. Each composes two pieces that seek impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments range over identity markers, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the idea that there could be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless official who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has has valuable insights to learn from the opposing positions."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
